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Pollspeak's Report On "Week 15" Polls (posted 12/8/09)

Also read this on SI.COM

Pollspeak’s Christmas comes early every year, and Monday the 7th was this year’s Christmas Day.  When I woke up, I was treated to 233 presents…233 shiny new ballots from the AP, Coaches’ and Harris Interactive Polls.  OK, I’ve peeked at the AP “presents” all year, but it’s great to finally open the gifts from Harris Interactive and the Coaches.  Of course, we’ll never know how closely the current ballots resemble those of the previous weeks.  Someday, if there really is a Santa Claus, we’ll get to see every ballot made public.

Until then, let me share some of my best presents with you…

Oh, first, I want to wish a Merry Christmas and hearty congratulations to the Central Michigan Chippewas who earned their first EVER AP ranking last week, checking in at No. 25.  They just missed out with the Grinch-like Coaches and Harris voters who ranked them No. 26.  However, they are listed as high as No. 18 by Wolfe’s ratings.

Now onto those presents…

You can see the ballot summaries for each poll here:

·         ASSOCIATED PRESS COLLEGE FOOTBALL POLL

·         HARRIS INTERACTIVE COLLEGE FOOTBALL POLL

·         USA TODAY COACHES’ POLL

Some of my favorite ballots are:

Scott Wolf in the AP.  With 13 extreme votes and 2 near-extremes, it makes me wish we used green instead of yellow for highlighting.  Then this truly would be the most festive holiday ballot.  No voter in any poll has as many.  I’m not saying he’s a bad voter…just unique…and certainly very jolly.

Ray Fittipaldo in the AP is Saint Nick and Scrooge rolled into one.  He is Saint Nick because he gave 7-5 Oklahoma their only vote (No. 19).  Merry Christmas!  He is Scrooge because he is the only AP voter not to rank 9-3 Miami, who beat the Sooners.  Bah! Humbug!

In the Harris Interactive Poll, three voters ranked TCU No. 1:  Akbar Gbaja-Biamila, Bob Wagner, and Rondo Fehlberg.  These three all have some ties to a Mountain West school.  Gbaja-Biamila is a San Diego State alum; Fehlberg is a BYU man, and Wagner is a former TCU defensive coordinator.  However, there is nothing wrong with this (according to Harris Interactive, at least).  While the AP doesn’t allow voter “homerism” or any formal association with the schools, Harris Interactive goes out of its way to collect homers.  Harris Interactive lets the conferences propose voters and then selects from the list.  At least they make sure each conference (even the smaller ones) has the same number of homers; so it should all balance out.  Of course, these things are hard to predict.  For example, Wagner is more famous for his ties to Hawaii; so he could have just as easily voted fellow WAC team Boise State higher.  Try predicting why Fran Curci (of Miami and Kentucky fame) would give 7-5 Tennessee their only vote …at No. 19.

Long time North Carolina Journalist, Larry Keech was definitely in the giving mood.  He gave Troy, Middle Tennessee and Temple their highest (and typically only) vote.  He also gave Central Michigan their highest vote at No. 13.  Of course, he who giveth can also taketh away…and in Keech’s case, it was at the expense of PAC-10 teams, Oregon State and Stanford.

In the Coaches’ Poll, it is much easier to identify homerism since current school employees can help decide if they or their peers get bonuses or if their conferences get a boost in TV revenue, bowl money, etc.  Sometimes they may just want to send a message of respect (or disrespect) to their opponents.  Unlike Harris Interactive, though, the Coaches’ Poll doesn’t ensure that all conferences are treated equally.

Look at ballots like:  DeWayne Walker of New Mexico State, who gave conference-mate Nevada their only vote and Boise State one of its highest.  He also has Oklahoma State highest (where he coached), USC nearly highest (where he coached) and BYU nearly lowest (where he coached).  I’ll let you guess if there are any connections there…or with the other five extreme choices he made.  Of course, it is possible his votes aren’t reflections on his personal relationships and resume.

Meanwhile, Washington State’s Paul Wulff, might be a little more transparent, voting fellow PAC-10 teams Oregon, Arizona and USC highest of the coaches.  Can you blame him?  Wouldn’t you do the same given no direction from the poll about bias, and having the most direct experience with other PAC-10 teams?  After all, the Cougars did lose to every single PAC-10 school.

One vote that seems to be completely unbiased and maybe a bit controversial is Air Force coach Troy Calhoun’s lone vote for Florida at No. 2.

Former Florida assistant and current Mississippi State Coach, Dan Mullen, has Florida next highest at No. 3 and another former school, Utah, highest at No.  16.  Meanwhile he treats fellow SEC teams well, ranking ‘Ole Miss and LSU highest.

Recently fired Louisiana-Monroe coach, Charlie Weatherbie seems to be taking his frustration out by voting for the underdogs.  He gives Texas their lowest ranking at No. 4, Troy one of their two votes, Northwestern their highest at No. 16, West Virginia their highest at No. 11, and Georgia Tech their highest at No. 7.  Why the Yellow Jackets?  Maybe because Tech’s Paul Johnson was Weatherbie’s offensive coordinator at Navy for a couple of years.  Weatherbie was also the only coach not to rank LSU.  There could be some in-state rivalry frustration on that call, but he did need to make room for Troy.

With coaching legend Bobby Bowden retiring this year, I’d like to point out some of his generosity this holiday and football season.  He voted long-time wins-record rival Joe Paterno’s Nittany Lions highest at No. 8, Clemson (who fired his son Tommy) highest at No. 22, former FSU offensive coordinator Mark Richt’s Bulldogs highest (their only vote)  at No. 25, and former rival and defensive coordinator at Florida,  Bob Stoops’ Sooners, second highest at No. 24.  (The only coach ranking Oklahoma higher is Bob Stoops himself.)  Coach Bowden, I think I speak for all college football fans (except maybe Oklahoma State and Pittsburgh fans, whom you left unranked) when I say we will truly miss you.

It is fortunate for poll voters that Texas kicked that last-second, game-winning field goal against Nebraska, or the rankings would have devolved into a free-for all.  There would have been far more people with an agenda trying to get Cincinnati, TCU or Boise State into the BCS Championship.  Who knows how many Texas and Florida sympathizers would have voted their teams No. 2 in hopes of getting their one-loss team into the big game.  So we can all thank Texas kicker, Hunter Lawrence, for peace in the polls and good will towards voters this holiday season.

I haven’t gotten through all of my presents yet.  233 are just too many to handle at once.  So I’ve put them in Pollstalker to share with all of you, and I encourage you to take a look and separate the lumps of coal from the Red Ryder carbine action, two-hundred shot range model air rifles.  Feel free to leave comments or drop me a line about who you think has been particularly naughty or nice this year.

Good and Bad Voters of "Week 14" (posted 12/5/09)

Tom Hart took his first Bad Voter of the Week, but he didn't actually vote any team lowest...alone at least.  He did vote Alabama lowest at No. 4, but so did the Good Voter of the Week, Joe Giglio.  Hart also voted Oregon and Oregon State lowest (again not alone).  Oregonians are active enough to where some of them likely decided to pick a voter on the national stage. 

As for Giglio, this is his second Good Voter award this season, but the good voting was so low this week that he shouldn't get a big head.  His 34 votes likely came from the 34 TCU fans who noticed he had them ranked highest at No. 2.  We included Good Voter of the Week so fan voting doesn't have to be seen as only a negative thing, but it has been proven time and again that there is a lot more interest in complaining than praising.

PEOPLE'S PICK:  Good Voter of "Week 14":

PEOPLE'S PICK: Bad Voter of "Week 14":

Pollspeak's Report On "Week 14" Polls (posted 12/1/09)

Also read this on SI.COM

Last weekend had little effect on the BCS picture.  It’s still the SEC champion vs. Texas for the national championship.  Then the conference champions will take their BCS bowl slots leaving what little drama is left for who will get the at-large bids.

Depending on how the conference championships play out, there could be a lot of drama, but I’ll leave that topic for next week.  This week the topic is conference strength… something that the championship games next week won’t significantly affect.

Four of the BCS components also offer conference ratings:  Sagarin, Anderson & Hester, Colley, and Wolfe.  No two systems rank the conferences in the same order, but let’s look at some of the things they do agree upon this week:

1)      The SEC is No. 1.   Fans from other conferences may complain on forums about ESPN’s pandering to the SEC because of their TV deal…that the SEC isn’t really that good.  Even if you don’t believe the media consensus that the best football is played in the SEC, the arguments against are less compelling when every computer agrees.  At least this year, ESPN can say, “it ain’t pandering if it’s true.”

2)      The PAC-10 is a strong No. 2.  Three of the four computers place the PAC-10 in the second spot.  Colley has the Big East No. 2 with the PAC-10 a close No. 3.  The PAC-10 also played the fewest FCS (1-AA) opponents of the major conferences.

3)      Admit it…the Big East is better than you thought.  Colley has them No. 2, A&H and Wolfe rank them No. 3, and Sagarin has them No. 4.  Amazingly, the Big East started the season with ZERO teams ranked in the polls.  There was a lot of forum chatter about how the Big East didn’t deserve an automatic BCS bid.  Pollspeak published an article in the beleaguered league’s defense, but the Big East proved itself on the field.

4)      The conferences ranked three through six tend to interchange with No. 6 split between the ACC and Big 10.  The ACC definitely hurt themselves last weekend.  They lost every SEC matchup (Georgia Tech vs. Georgia, FSU vs. Florida and Clemson vs. South Carolina); plus ranked North Carolina lost to NC State.  Miami was the best champion for the ACC's non-conference rep .

5)      The Mountain West and the WAC still have a long way to go to earn respect.  Every computer has the Mountain West over the WAC but also has both ranked below the big six conferences (and typically below the independents.)  So while Boise State and TCU are great stories this year (and past years) and other teams like BYU and Utah earned respect, the conferences can’t be taken seriously as a whole until some more of their teams get with the program.

But what do conference rankings really mean?  According to Wes Colley they basically mean that an average team in the top-ranked conference is better than an average team from a lower-ranked conference.  And according to Jeff Anderson, “The top-ranked conference is the conference that, on average, has the best teams.”  Note that the operative word in these sentences is “average.”

Obviously, it doesn’t mean that the SEC champion will automatically be the national champion.  Texas, TCU, Boise State, etc. could potentially beat any team in the country.  However, until the best teams regularly line up and play (during the season or in a playoff), conference strength is another tool to help voters rank teams.  It shouldn’t take precedence over team strength of schedule since out-of-conference games count just as much in the national picture.  Teams like TCU and Boise State have admirably bolstered their weak conference schedules with strong out of conference teams.  However, it still isn’t enough since TCU’s schedule ranks No. 84 nationally and Boise’s ranks No. 91 according to Sagarin. 

If the teams in the conferences that are ranked No. 7 or lower want a serious shot at the national title, they either need to join a stronger conference or hope the rest of their teams improve.   Of course, they could always go undefeated against three or four top-twenty, non-conference teams, but that isn’t likely, and is a harder task than playing against a bunch of “average” teams in conference.  And that’s really the key with the computers – the AVERAGE.  The WAC and Mountain West don’t need to focus on making their best teams better; they just need to make their average teams more average.  I’m not saying this will truly make one conference better than another, but I am saying it is the key to getting the computers to think so.

I’m running out of time to deal with the human voters this week, but let me give them a quick mention:

·         The Coaches have California ranked lower than any other BCS component.

·         Harris Interactive has West Virginia ranked lower than any other BCS component.

·         And I never thought I’d see the day when USC was getting a LOT more respect from the computers than from the voters.  Actually, LSU isn’t faring much better with the voters.  One AP voter in particular, Teddy Feinberg, was the only one to leave LSU off of his ballot…and one of the few to leave out USC.  It seems he needed to make room for Northwestern, which he ranks highest at No. 14.

Good and Bad Voters of "Week 13" (posted 11/28/09)

Kirk Herbstreit wins yet another Good Voter of the Week by having a completely inoffensive ballot.  Not a single extreme vote.  Couple that with looks, popularity, women, television exposure and he becomes the fall-back Good Voter whenever fans aren't pushing some other agenda.  We really should talk to him about becoming a Pollspeak spokesman.

Glenn Guilbeau gets his second Bad Voter of the Week for the same reason he got his first back in week 6:  voting Oregon lowest in the country.   Although in week 6 it was actually because he was the only one not to rank the Ducks at all.  This just goes to prove the old saying, "Glenn Guilbeau doesn't like Ducks, and Ducks don't like Glenn Guilbeau."

PEOPLE'S PICK:  Good Voter of "Week 13":

PEOPLE'S PICK: Bad Voter of "Week 13":

Pollspeak's Report On "Week 13" Polls (posted 11/23/09)

Also read this on SI.COM

“When two team’s records are the same, the winner of the head-to-head match-up should be ranked higher.”  I call this the “head-to-head rule.”  Based on feedback, it seems some people still aren’t sold on the idea.   Let’s start by way of example:

19 AP voters ranked LSU (8-3) over Mississippi (8-3) this week after the Tigers lost to the Rebels.   What’s interesting is that even though 41 out of 60 voters ranked Mississippi higher, LSU still came out ahead in the poll (No. 17 to Mississippi’s No. 20).  That’s because LSU voters heavily favored the Tigers while about 30 of the ‘Ole Miss voters only ranked the Rebels one spot above the Tigers.

I actually thought we would see more than 19 voters rank LSU higher because last week the ranking gap was huge between these two teams in LSU’s favor.  So while I’m pointing out that 19 voters still think that LSU is a better team after the loss, I’m also giving kudos to the other 41 voters for making “significant changes in your ballot from week to week” as the AP voter guidelines state.  Too many voters continue to use the “slide” rule of moving teams up a limited number of spots after a win and sliding down teams a limited number of spots after a loss.  When voters do this, it is tough for lower ranked teams to make headway, and it is the reason that the AP included the “significant changes” guideline.  The truth is that some of those 19 voters might think LSU is still a better team, but I’m confident that some are just using their own slide rule.  And as we all know, slide rules were replaced by computers years ago. 

On that note, the computers think LSU is better than ‘Ole Miss, too.  So there is obviously merit to ranking LSU higher if you don’t believe in the head-to-head rule.  But that is one of the things that separate the humans from the computers.  Humans put a lot of faith in head-to-head results; computers don’t.  (Except Billingsley, which has a one-week, head-to-head rule.)

Do people really support the head-to-head rule?   I’ve heard plenty of arguments from people about why head-to-head isn’t that important, but for some reason they usually come from fans of teams that recently lost a game.  However, when talking objectively (like before the season starts) I hear far fewer arguments.  In fact, I hear many calls for a playoff system, which is the most unforgiving head-to-head rule of them all --- you lose, you’re out. It doesn’t matter how good Team A usually is or how bad Team B usually is. The popularity of playoffs is the biggest evidence that humans accept head-to-head results for determining their champions.

The head-to-head rule is far more forgiving than a real playoff. At some point, however, you have to say, “Sorry, you lost. Better luck next year.” If fans and coaches were allowed to rationalize who progresses in a real playoff…there would be bloodshed. Obviously, this season-long playoff isn’t a formal rule, and I don’t expect it to be. However, I do think it is a fair method of ranking teams with the same record. Voters who don’t follow it should certainly be checked for ignorance (i.e. forgot), bias or worse.

To be clear, I don’t think anybody should follow the head-to-head rule blindly.  Every rule has exceptions, but I do think it should be the standard until there is a good reason to do otherwise. The decision to rank a loser over a winner should be made objectively and intentionally.   Personally, it would take a special situation for me to do so, but it is possible.

Keep in mind that one of the goals of Pollspeak is to help weed out bias and even corruption in college sports. So it is important that voters are able to justify their rankings. Otherwise voters could be unreasonably biased or (and I know it sounds paranoid) they could be bribed or coerced. That is why it is important that the process be transparent (no secret ballots) and why voters be questioned about what seem like irrational choices. Going against head-to-head results is one way to help identify bias, but it isn’t definitive. Voters can have valid reasons for going against the head-to-head rule. Obviously, it also isn’t the only indication of bias.  Pollspeak will be tracking voters over the season and over the years to identify patterns of bias. Does somebody vote Team X higher because they think they are a better team that week, or do they just usually rank Team X higher?

I also think the head-to-head rule holds more weight earlier in the season. For example, if Boise State beats Oregon in week one, why wouldn’t you rank the Broncos higher that week?  In week one, who is to say one team is better than another based on anything other than the game they played against each other? As the season progresses, the sample size is bigger, but don’t be fooled. The football season is way too short to put more faith in transitive speculation than what actually happened when the teams meet on the field. There is already so much subjectivity in the BCS (i.e. which is the best undefeated team). That is the price of having so few games in the season.  We don’t need to create more subjectivity by valuing biased opinions over actual results when we are lucky enough to have them.

So should ‘Ole Miss be ranked over LSU?  An LSU fan could argue that the Tigers lost to better competition:  Florida instead of South Carolina for example.  Their point is that if ‘Ole Miss lost to inferior competition, the Rebels must be inferior.  However, LSU lost to…well…’Ole Miss.  How bad is ‘Ole Miss?  They can’t be so bad that they make LSU look like they lost to inferior competition, but if they’re not inferior, then the Rebels should be ranked higher.   Also LSU hasn’t beaten a currently ranked team, while Mississippi beat…LSU.  Shouldn’t who you beat count as much as to whom you lost?  It’s a catch 22 that doesn’t really work in LSU’s favor no matter how you look at it.

Even if you think LSU is better, I don’t know how anybody who watched the end of that game can conclude that LSU is MUCH better.  Granted, LSU had a chance to win…on the road.  However, it took an on-side kick and a Hail Mary to get into that position.  Then there was the infamous spike heard round the world, which was a clock management mistake of epic proportions -- a mistake that is indicative of coaching issues beyond a typical fumble or injury problem.  The only slide rules I follow are posted on the playground:  “Always slide down feet first and sitting up, never head first.”  I think both of these teams should be closely ranked either way, but based on the head-to-head result, I’d give the edge to ‘Ole Miss.

Good and Bad Voters of "Week 12" (posted 11/21/09)

TCU fans made themselves heard this week.  The Good voter (Joe Giglio) had TCU highest and the Bad voter (Scott Wolf) had TCU lowest.  Wolf also had Ohio State lowest and didn't rank Clemson or Penn State, but the TCU connection is pretty obvious.  Now if only TCU can get the BCS to take notice.

PEOPLE'S PICK:  Good Voter of "Week 12":

PEOPLE'S PICK: Bad Voter of "Week 12":

Pollspeak's Report On "Week 12" Polls (posted 11/17/09)

Also read this on SI.COM

This week and last week have been great examples of the power of the BCS. Too bad all that power is totally wasted and pointless this year.  I’m referring to the Texas – Alabama situation.  Texas is ranked No. 2 in both human components of the BCS (Coaches and Harris Interactive).  However, Alabama has vaulted to No. 2 in the BCS on the strength of its computer scores.  The Tide have an average computer ranking of two while the Longhorns only average four with the computers.  This is a perfect demonstration of the BCS formula in action.  It was put into place to help temper conference bias, preseason conjecture, etc.  Unfortunately, since Alabama will be playing No. 1 Florida in a few weeks, nobody cares in the least.  If Alabama were replaced with, say, an undefeated USC, this disagreement between the humans and computers would be headline material and the subject of heated debate.  As it is, fans seem to be taking the situation in stride since it should all sort itself out on the field.  However, it is still worth mentioning that the BCS is currently doing the job it was created to do…even if nobody is paying attention.  

Towards the other end of the BCS, Cal checked into the top 25 with a strong push from the computers.  Silicon respect jumped the Golden Bears from No. 29 & 30 in the human polls.  On the other hand, the computers are like an albatross around Penn State’s neck, dragging them down a couple of spots from No. 12 to No. 14.  Two of the computers don’t even have the Nittany Lions in the top 25.

We’re No. -1:  The following teams all received one, last-place vote in the AP:  Nevada, Georgia, Oklahoma, Texas Tech, and Boston College.  On the bright side, that’s still one more vote than Michigan State, FSU, Missouri, and Ball State received.  Looking at the same week last year, 2009 is an improvement for Nevada, a push for Boston College, but a huge collapse for the others, which were all highly ranked in week 12 of 2008.  Pat yourself on the back if you're not a Ball State alum, and you remembered that the Cardinals were ranked right up until the bowls last year.

On the topic of negative 1’s:

Jay G. Tate is the one voter not to rank Iowa.

Scott Wolf is the one voter not to rank Penn State.

Craig James is the one voter to rank Oregon over Boise State.

Finally, I’ve been told that I tend to focus on the negatives.  You could say that I’m a negative one.  So I’ll close with congratulations to all of the AP voters.  Not a single voter ranked USC over Stanford this week.  That must have been a very difficult choice for some…especially those towards the bottom of this list.  Just look at the end of the list…at all the negative 1’s.

Good and Bad Voters of "Week 11" (posted 11/14/09)

Over the last three seasons, Jon Wilner has been named a record 10 times as some form of Bad voter.  However, this is his first ever Good Voter of the week.  Even though he has several extreme votes (10), the two where he voted highest alone:  Cincinnati (No. 3) and Georgia Tech (No. 5) likely did the most voting for Wilner.  Of all of the upsets this year: Washington over USC, Northwestern over Iowa, etc.  This may be the biggest one.

Garland Gillen is almost the polar opposite of Wilner.  First of all, this is his first time rated as a Bad voter.  Second, he only has two extremes.  Unfortunately for him, one of those is the sole lowest vote for Oregon (No. 23), and Duck fans are usually vocal.  Plus they aren't in a good mood after last weekend's loss to Stanford.

PEOPLE'S PICK:  Good Voter of "Week 11":

PEOPLE'S PICK: Bad Voter of "Week 11":

Pollspeak's Report On "Week 11" Polls (posted 11/9/09)

Also read this on SI.COM

In the grand scheme of things, there are no significant changes at the top of the BCS Standings.  The BCS championship will still be the SEC champion vs. Texas until one of those teams loses.  At the bottom of the BCS, Oregon State received an unusually large boost from the computers.  The Beavers were ranked outside the top 25 by all three human polls, but all six computers rank them… four in the top 20.  This pulled Oregon State from a No. 28 ranking in the polls to No. 23 in the BCS.  Beaver fans shouldn’t worry; expect the polls to catch up to the computers right before the season finale with Oregon.

Instead of disecting the BCS components this week, I want to cover a broader topic:  head-to-head match-ups.

Pollspeak has always advocated that when two teams have the same record, the team that wins the head-to-head match-up should be ranked over the loser.  This is one of the obvious, intelligent things humans can do that make us “better” than computer rankings in a sport where there is no playoff.  We can make our own playoff, which plays out over the entire season.

Of course, people always bring up exceptions to the rule: injuries were the reason for a loss, or weather, or officiating, or luck, or whatever.  Pollspeak’s official stance is, “so what?”  That’s why they play the games, and all of those excuses are part of the game.  With that reasoning, real playoffs would be pointless.  Teams would lose their playoff game and still get to advance because of injuries or weather or whatever excuse sounds best.

The college football season is just one big playoff with less formal rules and some complications.  (i.e. Texas, Oklahoma and Texas Tech last year).  However, typically, when two teams have the same record, the winner should be ranked higher…no excuses.  If the winner ends up having more losses, then all bets are off.  They can drop below the loser.  Otherwise, the winner has advanced in their playoff game.

The AP feels that head-to-head match-ups have merit, too.  It is one of their few voter guidelines:  “Pay attention to head-to-head results.”    Yet so many voters don’t pay attention.  For example:

Seven voters have Oklahoma State ranked over Houston.

John Hunt is the only voter to have Nebraska ranked over Virginia Tech.

Eight voters rank two-loss Arizona over one-loss Iowa. 

Bob Asmussen has two-loss Wisconsin ranked over Iowa.

Three voters rank Penn State over Iowa.

Ten voters rank West Virginia over South Florida.  The Mountaineers do have one more win so this is debatable, but both teams have two losses and the Bulls won the head to head. 

The worst example is that 23 voters rank USC over Oregon this week.  Oregon just beat USC soundly the previous week.  OK, unranked Stanford beat the Ducks, but USC lost to unranked Washington…a team with twice as many losses as the Cardinal.  The Trojans haven’t even played Stanford yet.  Voter memories are very short, but wouldn’t it seem obvious to rank Oregon over USC?

Maybe there is another reason.  It took me some time and effort to track down these examples of head-to-head match-ups between ranked teams with similar records…and there are more examples.  Could it be possible that voters just forget sometimes?  Of course it is possible, and we’ve seen cases of voters apologizing for mistakes in their weekly column or blog.

I would like your opinion.  I’ve designed a tool, like Pollstalker, that will tell voters where they are potentially making mistakes before they turn in their ballots.  It won’t fill out their ballots, and ultimately it will be up to the voters to make their own choices.  Do you think this would be a useful tool?  If somebody forgot that Nebraska lost to Virginia Tech in week three, it could remind them before they turn in their ballot.  If they still want to rank the Cornhuskers higher, fine.  At least, the decision was intentional.  What do you think?   Should I put it online?  I could personally use it to find all of the head-to-head oversights for future articles.  However, would voters use it?   

Coaches Agree to Release Final Ballots  (posted 11/8/09)

In January, the American Football Coaches Association had voted to no longer release their ballots for the final week of the regular season.  Historically, this is the only time the public can see how the coaches are voting, which is a far cry from what we actually want -- public ballots every week.   Yet, the AFCA decided to make these ballots private as well.  On Friday, they reversed this decision (likely due to pressure from the conferences and the BCS).  You can read their press release HERE.  While this is good news, we will continue to push for public ballots every week of the season.  If you haven't already, please sign the PETITION.

Good and Bad Voters of "Week 10" (posted 11/7/09)

Doug Lesmerises pulls a hat trick with his third Good Voter in a row.  However, Good votes have been so scarce lately that just about anybody with a large family could win.  To be fair, Jon Wilner actually received the most Good and Bad votes this week, which cancelled each other out.

In his place, we have first time Bad Voter Mike DiRocco of the Florida Times-Union.  It seems Oregon fans got their way this week as DiRocco voted them lowest at No. 11.

PEOPLE'S PICK:  Good Voter of "Week 10":

PEOPLE'S PICK: Bad Voter of "Week 10":

Pollspeak's Report On "Week 10" Polls (posted 11/2/09)

Also read this on SI.COM

Last week I talked about the intriguing USC vs. Oregon matchup because it was not only a clash of highly ranked teams, but it was also a clash of human voters vs. computer rankings.  Well, the computers won that round.  Don’t read too much into it though, computers make errors all the time.

There isn’t a dramatic human vs. computer matchup this week, but Oklahoma is the most drastic example where the two sides disagree.  The coaches and AP voters rank the Sooners No. 20, and Harris voters rank them No. 19.  Meanwhile, five of the six computers rank the Sooners from 34 to 44.  The lone exception is (you guessed it) Billingsley who ranks them No. 17.  Once again, we explained last week why Billingsley often won’t agree with the other computers.   With the computers’ low perception of Oklahoma, they slip down to No. 24 in the BCS.

At the top of the BCS Standings, the biggest move was Texas taking over the No. 2 spot.  While this might dismay some Alabama fans, it really doesn’t matter.  If Alabama continues to win, they’ll meet Florida in the SEC Championship and get their shot to be either No.1 or No. 2 in the BCS Standings with a win over the Gators.  Either way, if they win out, the Tide will be in the BCS Championship.

Meanwhile, the bottom of the BCS holds more drama.  The Coaches’ and Harris voters’ No. 25 team, BYU, didn’t crack the BCS top 25.  That’s a bit surprising considering the weight given to human votes.  Instead South Florida snuck in with a No. 26 ranking from the humans and a better poll average than BYU.  This is another example where the BCS gives humans a voting advantage.   Yes, USF has a better computer poll average, but the Bulls really benefited because they still scored points while being ranked outside the top 25 in the human polls.  However teams get no benefit from computer scores outside the top 25.  If human votes outside the top 25 didn’t count, BYU would be No. 25 in the BCS this week.  For those curious, BYU’s BCS average is approximately: 0.07013, which puts it right behind USF’s: 0786.

In the AP, there are only 59 voters this week since Kirk Herbstreit did not turn in a ballot.  He will be back in the ballot box next week, though.  In the meantime, one of his co-workers, Craig James  led the charge of eight voters who ranked Oregon over Boise State.  51 other voters made the right call, but James has Oregon at No. 4 and the undefeated Broncos team that beat them at No. 11.

The most polarizing team in the AP this week is Miami – ranked everywhere from 10 to unranked.  The No. 10 comes from Kirk Bohls, while Craig James and Bob Asmussen are the only two to leave the Hurricanes unranked.

Central Michigan’s hopes of a first-ever, top 25 ranking were dashed by the loss last weekend to Boston College.  However, a moral victory goes to Temple who received a rare vote from Mike Hlas after the Owls run of six wins in a row.  Even rarer, Richmond, an FCS (IAA) team, got a vote from the San Francisco Chronicle’s Ray Ratto.  Richmond is undefeated and beat a much-improved Duke team to start their season. 

Duke didn’t receive any votes in the AP, but they did get one in Harris Interactive and three points from the coaches after three straight ACC wins.  Without public ballots, we won’t know where the votes came from, but in the Coaches’ Poll, I can take a guess.  One point probably came from David Cutcliffe himself.  With the job he’s done at Duke, he deserves to pat himself on the back.  The other two points could have come from Steve Spurrier, who had been giving his old team a pity vote for years in the pre-season polls.  Now that there is a slim opportunity to actually vote for them, he’s giving the Blue Devils their due.

Good and Bad Voters of "Week 9" (posted 10/31/09)

Doug Lesmerises wins his second Good Voter of the Week award in a row. However, it was a half-hearted effort by the fans...only 71 good votes.  Therefore we will only give a half-hearted effort analyzing his win...there...done.

Jon Wilner gets his first Bad Voter of the Week this season.  He is also Pollstalker's most extreme voter of the week.  Often those are related; sometimes they shouldn't be.  Wilner most likely upset fans of Penn State and Texas, whom he has lowest.  He also has USC, Georgia Tech and South Carolina highest, and he was one of three voters to leave West Virginia unranked.  So was his Bad Voter of the Week deserved?  We don't make that call, but we will say that ranking USC No. 2 over undefeated Florida and Texas is a very dubious choice...this week.

PEOPLE'S PICK:  Good Voter of "Week 9":

PEOPLE'S PICK: Bad Voter of "Week 9":

Pollspeak's Report On "Week 9" Polls (posted 10/26/09)

Also read this on SI.COM

Two of the more impressive top-ten teams last weekend actually dropped in this week’s BCS Standings.  Boise State and Cincinnati each dropped three places after their dominating performances.  Of course, they dominated inferior teams, which is part of the reason they dropped.  In the BCS, when things are tight, strength of schedule makes a difference.   So schools have to hope that the other teams on their schedule also do well.  It’s kind of like that old health-class warning: when you sleep with someone…you’re sleeping with everyone they’ve slept with.  So choose your partners wisely.

In this case,  Boise State slept with Hawaii, who is on a five game losing streak, Tulsa (who just lost to UTEP), Bowling Green (who just lost to Central Michigan), and a winless Miami (OH).  Cincinnati bedded five-loss Louisville, South Florida (who just lost to Pittsburgh), and again a winless Miami (OH).  Had Oregon State defeated USC, it would have in turn helped Cincinnati.  Strong relationships make a difference in the bedroom and the BCS.

Meanwhile, TCU, USC and Iowa all benefited from the other teams’ poor choice of bed-partners.  Each jumped up two places.  TCU was helped by a solid victory over BYU, but USC and Iowa squeaked out wins and were simply thrust into the spots vacated by the Broncos and the Bearcats.  Texas is still in ideal position for a BCS Championship spot, but Iowa looks to be separating from the rest of the pack (barring a loss).  If fact, five of the six BCS computers rank Iowa No. 1 this week.  So let this be a lesson to athletic directors…always practice safe scheduling.

Speaking of safe scheduling, the Trojans will have a chance to make their case this weekend against No. 10 Oregon, but even with a victory, USC would still need other teams to lose to have a serious shot at the BCS title.  Oregon is in the same situation.  Again, five of the six BCS computers rank Oregon higher than USC. The human polls favor USC, which is why the Trojans are ranked higher in the BCS.  So this weekend’s clash between the Trojans and the Ducks is also a clash between the humans and the machines.  If the Ducks win, look for a new computer component to be added to the BCS -- Skynet.

Other disagreements between humans and computers this week are Arizona – who are liked by the computers more than the humans (Billingsley is the only computer without the Wildcats in top 25.); Texas – who is liked by the humans more than the computers (Billingsley is the only computer to agree with the polls); and Mississippi – the humans (and Billingsley) are the only ones with the Rebels in the top 25.

A common trend you probably noticed is that the Billingsley Report tends to break ranks with the other computers on a regular basis.  That’s because it is has a very different methodology.  You can read the Billingsley system explanation for details, but I’ll paraphrase (very loosely).   The Billingsley Report ranks teams more like a human voter (given specific rules) would handle rankings.  I’ll call it a voter simulation.  That’s why we’ll sometimes see Billingsley siding more closely with the polls than the computers.  It weighs losses heavily and even figures in pre-season bias to some extent.  It is one of the few systems to offer a preseason poll (the previous year’s final poll) and uses it as a starting point for the new season.  It even figures in a one-week, head-to-head matchup rule, ensuring that winners are ranked ahead of losers (other things being equal).  So the Billingsley Report is kind of like a T-1000 cyborg wrapped in human flesh.  If Judgment Day arrives and the machines attack, we may have to send Billingsley back in time to save us.

As for the real humans in the AP, they are mostly disagreeing over Penn State.  The Nittany Lions are the most polarizing team this week, ranging from Craig James’ No. 7 to Jon Wilner’s No. 22.

On the other hand, congratulations to the Houston Cougars who are ranked by every AP voter for the first time this season…and the first time in a long time.  The last year the Cougars were ranked was 1991. 

I have a quick aside about Houston and the Sagarin Ratings.  Sagarin’s list to the BCS doesn’t include FCS schools.  Believe it or not, Richmond is currently No. 25 in Sagarin’s BCS ratings (also called ELO_CHESS. Richmond is No. 40 in Sagarin’s standard ratings.)  So Houston snuck in and took Richmond’s place in Sagarin's top 25 for the BCS. 

Central Michigan hopes to be the next Houston with nearly half of the AP voters ranking them this week.  The Chippewas are on the cusp of their first EVER top 25 ranking, currently standing at No. 27 in the AP and No. 26 in the Coaches’ Poll.  Of course, to be exactly like Houston, they would have to time travel back to 1991 and become ranked first.   While there, they could meet up with the Billingsley-1000 and slip into any movie theatre to check out the number one movie that year:  Terminator 2: Judgment Day.

Good and Bad Voters of "Week 8" (posted 10/24/09)

After weeks of being the most polarizing voter and even being named Bad Voter of the Week for weeks three and four, Doug Lesmerises finally earns Good Voter of the Week.  He likely received most of his votes from the Big East since he ranks both Cincinnati and USF highest.

Scott Wolf gets his second consecutive Bad Voter of the Week which is no surprise since he is once again the most extreme voter, which gives him the biggest opportunity to upset a lot of fan bases.  His ballot most likely upsets the old Rose Bowl crowd, ranking Oregon lowest while leaving Ohio State and Penn State off of his ballot completely (Houston is also missing).

PEOPLE'S PICK:  Good Voter of "Week 8":

PEOPLE'S PICK: Bad Voter of "Week 8":

Pollspeak's Report On "Week 8" Polls (posted 10/19/09)

Also read this on SI.COM

The BCS standings are finally out.  That means we can stop debating how each team is going to be ranked in the BCS and start debating how each team is actually ranked in the BCS.  Many people only care about No. 1 and No. 2 since those are the teams that will be playing in the championship game.  As expected, those teams this week are Florida and Alabama.  However, if they continue to win, they’ll meet in the SEC championship game, which will likely knock one of them out of contention.  So fans really need to look at who is No. 3.  Right now that is Texas.  If the Longhorns win out, they should end up in the BCS title game.

The teams on the outside, still hoping for a shot are:   Boise State, Cincinnati, Iowa, USC and TCU.  However, none of those teams have the strength of schedule remaining to overtake Texas.  So a Texas loss would be necessary.  Of course, if USC didn’t have the one loss already, they would be fighting it out with Texas (likely ahead of Texas right now), but as it is, the Trojans are a dark horse for the title game.  If Texas does falter, it will likely be a toss-up between Iowa and Cincinnati who are currently separated by one-thousandth of a point.  Either one could jump Boise State in the BCS depending on how the human voters rank one over the other in the final week.  The best chance the Broncos have of becoming the first BCS title-game buster is for Oregon to go undefeated (taking care of USC in the process), and for a few of the teams listed above to stumble.  Even then the chances for Boise State are slimmer than seeing an anorexic snapping into a Slim Jim.

Obviously the BCS computers can make a difference when things are close, but the human element weighs far more heavily into the BCS formula.  For evidence, look no further than Ohio State, which is ranked No. 19 in the BCS due almost completely to the Buckeyes’ No. 17 rankings in both human polls.  No computer ranking below No. 25 counts toward the BCS formula, and Ohio State only received two rankings from computers…both No. 25, and one of those gets dropped by the formula.  Likewise, Kansas is ranked No. 25 in the BCS based mainly on its No. 21 rankings in the human polls.  Only one of the six computers ranked the Jayhawks, which again gets dropped by the formula.  So teams on the bubble really need the human voters to smile upon them.

On the other hand, there are Wisconsin and Arizona who are both ranked in the BCS (No. 21 and No. 22 respectively) even though they aren’t ranked in the top 25 by either human poll.    The computer average for both teams is No. 14, which definitely helped them get ranked.  So why did I just say that humans have a much stronger say in the BCS?  Well these teams demonstrate another “trick” the BCS uses to give humans more pull.  Computer rankings don’t count at all when they rank a team below No. 25.  However, when humans rank a team below No. 25, they still get some points.  Wisconsin was ranked No. 38 by Harris Interactive and No. 31 by the Coaches’ Poll.  Arizona was ranked No. 37 by Harris Interactive and No. 40 by the Coaches’ Poll.   The small amount of points they received from a minority of voters, coupled with high computer rankings were enough to get them into the BCS.

Looking at the human polls, Harris Interactive was the only poll not to rank South Carolina in the top 25.  Meanwhile the coaches have Iowa (No. 8) and Oregon (No. 14) lower than any other BCS component and the AP.  Likewise, they have Mississippi (No. 25) and Oklahoma State (No. 12) highest.

The biggest news in the AP Poll is that Alabama claimed the No.1 spot over Florida after the Gator’s narrow victory against Arkansas.  Again, it doesn’t really matter for the AP championship since they would meet first in the SEC title game.  However, it does mean that Florida won’t earn the elusive wire-to-wire No. 1 in the AP.  That has only been accomplished twice in AP history:  FSU in 1999 and USC in 2004.

Last week, there were a lot of fan comments about whether the media has a pro-Notre Dame or anti-Notre Dame bias.  Using this-week’s AP as an example, there weren’t many voters ranking either Notre Dame or Michigan (who has a better record and beat the Irish.)  However, of those who did vote for one, 14 of 23 ranked Notre Dame higher.  In fact the Irish were ranked high enough to check in at number 26 in the AP Poll.  However, in defense of the media, most computers also rank Notre Dame higher than Michigan, and two of them have the Irish in the top 25.

Four voters have Mississippi over South Carolina even though the Gamecocks have a better record and beat the Rebels in the head to head matchup.  No poll or computer agrees with these four “rebel” voters.

Two voters, led by Chris Fowler, have Oregon ranked over undefeated Boise State.  Again no poll or computer agrees with them, but if enough like-minded voters exist in the BCS polls, it will kill what little chance the Broncos have of making it to the BCS title game.  It might sound silly, but a marketing campaign (similar to what schools already do for Heisman hopefuls), might actually help teams on the BCS bubble.  Weather the ads really works or not, I wouldn’t be surprised to see them as long as voters get to call the shots.   So someday we’ll see commercials like: “Boise:  Just Blue It.” and “Only you can prevent potato fires” and maybe even “Please don’t squeeze the Broncos (out of the BCS title game.)”

 Bonus Slogans:

 “Broncos, the other white meat.”

“Where do you want to go today?” (to the BCS title game)

 “The best part of waking up…is Broncos in your bowl.”

Feel free to suggest more…

First BCS Rankings of '09 Released (posted 10/18/09)

The first BCS rankings of the '09 season are released and now in Pollstalker.  You can compare how every team is ranked in the BCS, every component of the BCS and the AP Poll by viewing the BCS+AP Compiled '09 Report HERE.

One Ballot Missing in 'Week 8'  (posted 10/18/09)

Desmond Conner of The Hartford Courant did not turn in his week eight AP Ballot.  There is no replacement ballot for the week and Conner will continue voting next week.

Good and Bad Voters of "Week 7" (posted 10/17/09)

Chris Fowler regains the overall lead with his third Good Voter of the Week (including his preseason win).  This looks like a clean victory for Fowler who didn't have any lone extremes to sway any particular fan base.  He was one of four people to leave USF unranked, but that wouldn't get him any votes.  With a third victory, we are getting suspicious that he has ordered ESPN staffers to vote for him.  OK, not really.  We know he could get a lot more than 175 people if he really wanted to.

On the other hand, Scott Wolf gets his first Bad Voter of the Week for this season.  He was also Pollstalker's most extreme voter.  With ten extreme votes, there are any number of fan bases who could have voted for him.  The most likely ones are Oklahoma State.  Wolf was the only voter to leave them unranked.  Although he also voted Boise State lowest at No. 11, and Bronco fans have been vocal in the past.  Then again it could simply be another case of people who hate Idaho.  He was also the only voter to rank the Vandals this week.

PEOPLE'S PICK:  Good Voter of "Week 7":

PEOPLE'S PICK: Bad Voter of "Week 7":

Pollspeak's Report On "Week 7" Polls (posted 10/12/09)

Also read this on SI.COM

The SEC is the Taylor Swift of college football -- a media darling, country charm and looks good on TV.  SEC fans are quick to tout the strength of their conference top to bottom, and lucrative TV contracts with ESPN and CBS only fuel the praise from the sportscasters they employ.   However, when reading non-SEC message boards, fans are starting to look at the SEC like Notre Dame – delusional, overrated, and undeserving of all the praise and media attention they get….more like Britney Spears. 

However, the SEC now has the No. 1 and No. 2 teams in the country according to the AP and every BCS component except the Coaches' Poll. (‘Bama is No. 3 in the Coaches’ Poll).  That is truly impressive and a major feather in the cap of the SEC.  So let’s compare that sentiment to one of the few reputable gauges of overall conference strength – Sagarin’s conference ratings (no offense to the media who hold the TV contracts).

This week the PAC-10 is rated highest even with SEC teams occupying the top two spots in the individual rankings.  The SEC is still a close (and very respectable) second, followed by the ACC, Big East, Big 12 and Big Ten -- in that order.  This probably isn’t the order that most of the media and fans would expect.

The truth of the matter is that the SEC has been on top a lot lately, but they took it on the chin this weekend with Auburn losing to twice-beaten Arkansas, Mississippi not living up to expectations, and Vanderbilt and Mississippi State both losing to non-BCS schools.  So this is a good week for other conferences to point out that they’re good too.

According to Sagarin’s ratings, the BCS conferences are very close in overall strength and some of the reportedly weaker conferences can be stronger on any given week.  However, when it comes to media perception, what seems to matter most is how many top-10 teams a conference has in the polls.  In the three human polls we now have:

• SEC = 3 (Florida, Alabama, LSU)

• ACC = 2* (Virginia Tech, Miami*)

• PAC-10 = 1 (USC)

• Big Ten = 1 (Ohio State)

• Big 12 = 1 (Texas)

• Big East =  1 (Cincinnati)

• WAC = 1 (Boise State)

• Mountain West = 1 (TCU)

*AP Only

Computers see things differently because they have their own top-ten teams (i.e. Oregon and Iowa) while Sagarin (for example) sees Texas outside the top 10.   More importantly, computers do a better job of looking beyond the conferences’ best teams and try to compare every team right down to the Vanderbilts, Dukes, and Iowa States.

So if humans concentrate on the top 10, it makes sense to conclude that the SEC is far and away on top this week with everybody else lumped in tier two.  After all, every other conference has just one top-10 team compared to the SEC’s three.   We don’t even care too much about the top 25, or we would see that the Big 12 dominates this week…particularly in the Harris Interactive Poll, which has six Big 12 teams.

Maybe looking at top-ten teams is a valid way to judge a conference.  Would the SEC’s best beat every team in every other conference?  If so, wouldn’t that make the SEC the winner in this fictional tournament?  Maybe, but don’t be fooled by talking heads who use phrases like “top to bottom” conference X is clearly the best.  Or team Y would never survive if they played a conference X schedule.  If we could judge conferences as a whole (like a computer does), we would realize that the conferences are all a lot closer than we are told….top to bottom.

Notre Dame, again like Britney Spears, is making a comeback.  The Fighting Irish are back in all three polls at No. 25 after a particularly impressive bye-week.  Of course, the Notre Dame haters say that voters are just fattening them up to make a worthy sacrifice for USC.  However, a majority of the BCS computers rank the Irish even higher.  So conspiracy theorists can put down their flaming shillelaghs and back away from 30 Rock.

Meanwhile, the coaches have finally put Iowa one spot over Penn State (begrudgingly it seems), but they have relapsed and ranked Oklahoma over BYU again.  It just shows that coaches can only concentrate on one head-to-head matchup per week.  It’s an old coaching axiom to only focus on one game at a time, but this is sad.

In the AP, several  teams this week had only one or two voters leave them off their ballot including: BYU, South Carolina, Kansas and Oklahoma State.

LSU and Miami were also listed on 59 of the 60 ballots…the twist is that the same voter left both teams off.  Adam Van Brimmer of the Savannah Morning News is the only person to rank neither team.  In their place he has Central Michigan and Oregon State. 

Navy and Idaho garnered rare votes in the AP this week from Jon Wilner and Scott Wolfe respectively (once again the two most extreme voters of the week).  In the case of Idaho, Wolfe is actually getting some support from the other BCS rankings, including top-20 rankings for the Vandals from Anderson/Hester, Colley and Massey rankings.  Navy will need a lot more votes, but the last time the Midshipmen were in the top 25 was Jan. 5, 2004 when they were ranked No. 24.  That same month Britney Spears’ Toxic was also ranked No. 24.  Coincidence?  OK, yes, completely, but I needed some way to tie this all together.  Special thanks to Google.

Good and Bad Voters of "Week 6" (posted 10/10/09)

Kirk Herbstreit gets his second Good Voter of the Week nod from the fans.  Once again he did it without a unique extreme vote, which is rare.  He does have USC highest at No. 4, but so do four other voters.  Our lone female staffer says it's because "Herbie is cuter than the other four."  Sorry, Fowler, you're upstaged again.  Pollspeak may need to consider a test for female bias to go along with team and conference bias.

Glenn Guilbeau gets his first Bad Voter of the Week pick from the fans this season.  Votes likely came from a few fan bases, but mostly from Oregon fans.  Guilbeau was the only voter to leave the Ducks unranked.  He also voted Cincinnati lowest at number 25.

PEOPLE'S PICK:  Good Voter of "Week 6":

PEOPLE'S PICK: Bad Voter of "Week 6":

Pollspeak's Report On "Week 6" Polls (posted 10/5/09)

Also read this on SI.COM

It’s October, the month where strange and horrific creatures visit our homes and scare the hell out of us.  Of course, I’m talking about the computer rankings.  The first Anderson & Hester Rankings of the season were just released, and the lone BCS component left to appear is the Wolfe Ratings, which come out on October 18^th during a full moon (Yes, that was a lame wereWolfe pun).

More importantly, October is when the computers typically start to make sense.  To help prepare you for the BCS horror, let me explain two of the “trickier” rankings:  Sagarin and Massey.  You can find the Sagarin Ratings at the USA Today site where teams are listed by their standard “Rating.”  However, this rating isn’t used by the BCS, which doesn’t allow for margin of victory.  Instead, the BCS uses Sagarin’s ELO_CHESS ratings, which are listed on the same page in the second column from the right.  Unfortunately there is no way to sort by that column.  So the best way to see the Sagarin teams sorted in their BCS order is with Pollstalker.  The Massey Ratings  have a similar “BCS” column (also second from the right).  The Massey site lets you sort, which makes it easier to read; however, you must also use the “FBS” filter since Massey doesn’t send any FCS (1AA) schools to the BCS.  Of course, you could just use Pollstalker to look at the Massey Ratings as well.

The computers definitely see things differently at this point in the season with all five computers tapping LSU as the No. 1 team.  Meanwhile all three human polls still rank Florida No. 1.  This isn’t a surprise, but it does show how differently humans and computers handle their week-to-week rankings.  LSU didn’t even receive one first place vote in any of the polls (AP, Coaches’, or Harris Interactive).  

Florida may end up being national champions (relatively good odds according to Vegas).  However, everybody who is voting Florida No. 1 is making many assumptions.  For example, the Gators will play as well as they did last year.  Opponents won’t be better at defending the spread.  Tim Tebow or other key players won’t be injured.  Other teams haven’t improved more than Florida.  Other teams won’t get lucky, etc.   Computers can’t make these assumptions.  Instead, they’ll have to wait until Florida plays LSU next week.  After that, I strongly suspect the computers and humans will be on the same page for the first time this season.

Speaking of those scary humans, shouldn’t South Carolina be ranked over Mississippi?  The Gamecocks have a better record and beat ‘Ole Miss head-to-head.  All of the computers rank the Gamecocks higher, but none of the human polls agree.  More than half of the AP voters also have it the wrong way around.  In fact Mississippi has one of the largest ranges of rankings in the BCS components.  The Rebels are ranked No. 16 by the Coaches, but No. 71 by Massey (BCS, FBS).  Mississippi gets its chance to make a statement next week when Alabama comes to town.  If ‘Ole Miss wins, we’ll have to wait one more week for South Carolina to play Alabama and sort this mess out.

Meanwhile the Coaches’ Poll still has Penn State ranked over Iowa.  Iowa struggled with Arkansas State (and won), but they still have a better record and beat Penn State.   I’ll make the coaches a deal: let us see your ballots, and I promise not to refer to you by name.  It can be the way penalties are called, without naming the player who committed the foul.   Oh wait, I just remembered….they changed that rule because coaches thought it would be good for everyone to know what is going on even if it did cast a bad light on players.  That sounds familiar.

Oklahoma becomes the first two-loss team to be ranked in the polls.  There is no shame in that; their two losses were close calls against ranked teams.  At least all of the human polls have BYU and Miami over the Sooners this week.  That’s still not the case with individual AP voters though.  John Clay leads the way with Oklahoma ranked No. 11 (highest) and BYU unranked.

Five AP voters have Ohio State over USC.  I’m not sure why, when they lost the head-to-head at home.  It must be Ohio State’s quality win over…

I mentioned how the computers typically start to make sense in October.  One example this week is Doug Lesmerises’ ballot.  I’m not saying Doug is a computer, but his method of heavily weighing on-the-field results over reputation is computer-like.  His ballot this week is his first that isn’t the most extreme.  Again, we’re reaching a point where more and more voters are abandoning reputation over actual results, and Lesmerises is now falling more in line with other voters.

The new extreme voters are Jon Wilner and Scott Wolfe.  The California duo was commonly mentioned in past seasons, but not so much this year.  Wilner has Miami and Virginia Tech highest, Florida lowest at No. 7 and is one of the few to leave Penn State unranked.    Wolfe was the only voter to rank Utah over Oregon, a team who beat them.  Wolfe also left Penn State unranked.  While I agree that the Hawkeyes should be ranked higher than the Nittany Lions, Penn State is still a quality team.  Then again, they are probably still looking for a quality win, and I can’t argue with that.

October will be a scary month with both the BCS and Halloween looming.  I’m a big fan of both and can’t wait to see how the month plays out.  Don’t worry; Pollspeak will be here to protect you.  Just don’t believe what BCS Commissioner, Jason Voorhees, always says, “Relax.  It’ll all work out in the end.”

Good and Bad Voters of "Week 5" (posted 10/3/09)

Both the Good and Bad voters of the Week were second choices to the regularly polarizing Doug Lesmerises.  Good Voter, Ray Ratto, didn't vote any team lowest, but voted four teams highest.  Although he writes for the San Francisco Chronicle, he seems to love him some Alabama teams, and likely earned a lot of votes from Auburn fans after he ranked the Tigers No. 8.

Meanwhile, Paul Arnett of the Honolulu Star-Bulletin was picked as Bad Voter of the Week.  Undoubtedly this is because he ranked California (No. 10) over Oregon (Unranked) after the Ducks pummeled the Golden Bears last weekend.  This was the largest differential of all the voters.  That was a good piece of detective work, Oregon fans.

PEOPLE'S PICK:  Good Voter of "Week 5":

PEOPLE'S PICK: Bad Voter of "Week 5":

Pollspeak's Report On "Week 5" Polls (posted 9/28/09)

Also read this on SI.COM

The biggest poll news this week is the release of the Harris Interactive College Football Poll, which makes up one-third of the BCS formula.  Unfortunately, like the Coaches’ Poll, there are no public ballots to look at.  It’s even more unfortunate that public record laws won’t apply to most of the Harris voters.  So the only way to change how the Harris Poll is run is to get the BCS to require public ballots.  There’s no easy way to do that, but Pollspeak sponsors a petition asking them nicely.

Until then, we can look at the Harris Poll as a whole and make some generalizations.  Not to add fuel to a forest fire, but the two BCS Polls (Coaches’ and Harris), both still rank Penn State over Iowa after the Hawkeyes defeated the Nittany Lions last weekend.  Whereas the AP Poll (the one with the public ballots) rightfully has Iowa (No. 13) over Penn State (No. 15).   Maybe if the BCS required public ballots, more of their voters would start paying better attention.

The Harris voters ranked Ohio State and Penn State higher than any other poll (AP and Coaches) or BCS computer.  They also ranked Miami and Georgia Tech lower than any other poll.   Without seeing ballots, it’s hard to call bias because the Harris Poll actually has a solid method of choosing voters:  10 representatives from each conference plus one for each independent school for a total of 114.  That’s more objective than the Coaches’ or AP selection process and might be what helps teams like BYU earn its highest ranking.  Still, it would be great to get a polls-peak under the hood and find out.

As for the ever-transparent AP, Doug Lesmerises continues to be the most extreme voter (again extreme is not the same as bad).  He had an opportunity to explain his ballot on ESPN College Gameday last Saturday and seemed to convince fellow voter Kirk Herbstreit, but Craig James could not be swayed.  As it is, Lesmerises is becoming less extreme as the weeks go by.  Not because he is changing his ways.  Instead, the games are playing themselves out and more voters are forced to leave their assumptions behind in place of on-the-field results.  Now that there is a larger sample size, they are starting to do what Lesmerises has been doing from week one.  Of course, some voters still haven’t let on-the-field results impede their decisions:

The most recent examples are the five AP voters that have Penn State ranked over Iowa.  That’s still a lot better than the Coaches or Harris Interactive voters, but what are those five people thinking?  Iowa has played better competition, has a better record and beat Penn State head-to-head in Happy Valley by two scores.  What possible reason could there be for Penn State to be ranked higher right now?  The worst offender is Jay G. Tate of the Montgomery Advertiser, who has Penn State ranked No. 11, but Iowa only at No. 22.

Previously, some people thought it was funny to rank Houston over Oklahoma State even though the Cougars have a better record and beat the Cowboys by two scores in Stillwater.  Now that the Cougars have also beaten Texas Tech, it’s become the norm.  However, ten voters still have Oklahoma State ranked higher.  Pete DiPrimio is leading that charge, ranking the Cowboys No. 14 but leaving Houston unranked.

Of course there are the situations you can count on, like the 49 of 60 voters that have Oklahoma over BYU, but trying to reverse that would be asking too much.  Instead, I’ll continue to point out the examples that are so clear cut that if we don’t step in, the Division of Forestry will.  That bit of logging humor was in honor of Oregon’s lopsided victory over Cal last weekend.  On that note, 9 voters, including Craig James, still ranked the Golden Bears over the Ducks.  I hope things change next week.  I’m not sure if I have another lumberjack joke in me.

First Harris Interactive Football Poll of '09 Released  (posted 9/27/09)

The Harris Interactive College Football Poll accounts for one-third of the BCS formula.  As usual you can view it in Pollstalker HERE, and compare it to the other BCS components.  Unfortunately, the ballots are still not made public this year.  Pollspeak's petition to help change that can be found HERE.

Also, you can read the Harris Interactive press release (including a list of voters), and check out Pollspeak's comparison of '09 to '08 Harris Interactive voters.

Good and Bad Voters of "Week 4" (posted 9/26/09)

Even after receiving endorsements from Pollspeak and SI''s Stewart Mandel, Cleveland's Plain Dealer writer, Doug Lesmerises has once again been chosen as Bad Voter of the Week by the fans.  While he did get more "Good" votes this week (392 compared to 289, last week) he also received more "Bad" votes (755 compared to 607 last week).

With 11 extreme votes, once again there are plenty of fan bases potentially casting their votes for Lesmerises.  In breaking news, Lesmerises was just on this morning's College Gameday and was able to explain his ranking method.  Maybe that will sway some voters next week and avoid a three-peat.  In fact, he also received an endorsement from fellow voter, Kirk Herbsteit.

Speaking of Herbstreit, he is our Good Voter of Week 4, with a very respectable 516 good votes.  With zero extremes, this might be one of those rare occasions where people are actually giving him props for his ballot instead of simply choosing the voter who ranked their favorite team highest.  Now let's see if people will respect Herbstreit's opinion on  Lesmerises as well.

PEOPLE'S PICK:  Good Voter of "Week 4":

PEOPLE'S PICK: Bad Voter of "Week 4":

Pollspeak's Report On "Week 4" Polls (posted 9/21/09)

Also read this on SI.COM

The biggest upset of the week was USC falling to Washington.  No kidding.  The mere fact that you’ve found this blog means you’ve already seen at least 10 headlines on your way here.  Accordingly, USC dropped in the polls, but the Trojans were fortunate to stay in the top ten in the Coaches’ Poll and only dropped to No. 12 in the AP.  Meanwhile, Washington entered the AP Poll for the first time since 2003, checking in at No. 24.  That was a long drought for the Huskies considering they had been in the AP Poll every year prior since 1977.   For what it's worth, only 11 AP voters made the bold choice of ranking the Huskies over the Trojans this week.

While it’s still early in the season, Sagarin also thinks highly of the Huskies and ranks them No. 12.  If nothing else, LSU fans can feel a lot better about their closer-than-expected win at Washington to open the season. 

A tale of three teams:

Oklahoma (No. 9), BYU (No. 20) and FSU (No. 25).  That’s how they’re ranked in the Coaches’ Poll…in exactly the opposite order of their head-to-head victories.  Unfortunately, without the Coaches’ ballots we really can’t figure out why it worked out this way.  However, we can look to the AP with its public ballots and get some sense of what is going on.

In the AP, we see:  Oklahoma (No. 10), FSU (No. 18), BYU (No. 19).   So many AP voters are making the same decisions but not quite as drastic.  Even after FSU soundly beat BYU 54 – 28 in Provo, 8 voters have BYU ranked but not the Seminoles, and in all, 19 voters (out of 60) still ranked the Cougars over the Noles.  Leading the way is Dave Matter of the Columbia Daily Tribune who ranked BYU No. 11, but left FSU unranked. 

Following this train of thought, 48 voters now have Oklahoma ranked over BYU.  That’s up from three people last week.  This isn’t completely surprising considering how badly BYU lost at home, but the Sooners and the Cougars now have the same record and BYU won the head-to-head.  It’s hard to justify a spread like Joe Rexrode of the Lansing State Journal who ranks Oklahoma No. 7 and leaves BYU unranked.

Riding the train full circle, it’s also surprising that only 12 voters have FSU ranked over Oklahoma.  After all, all three teams have one loss.  BYU beats Oklahoma on a neutral field.  FSU beats BYU on the road.  You would think most people would put FSU over both BYU and Oklahoma, but it isn’t even close.  Could Oklahoma’s lopsided victories over Idaho State and Tulsa really warrant the Sooners earning so much respect?  Ray Ratto of the San Francisco Chronicle feels strongly enough about it to rank the Sooners No. 8 while leaving the Seminoles and BYU unranked. 

When I say “surprising” above, I don’t mean that I’m surprised that the polls shook out this way.  After all, many voters have used the classic method of only shifting teams a limited distance with each ballot for years.  What does surprise me is that people still think this is acceptable years after the AP provided guidelines to the contrary and sites like Pollspeak have been shedding light on these antiquated voting styles.  (Coaches are not provided with these guidelines, by the way.)  These voters are still using wishbone ballots in the era of the spread and west-coast voting. 

Of course, if Oklahoma beats Miami in two weeks…that’s another story and a whole new set of problems for voters.  Follow this hypothetical scenario if you can:  Oklahoma beats Miami who beat FSU who beat BYU who beat Oklahoma….and they all have one loss!  I don’t even want to guess what the voters would do.  They might shut down like one of Harry Mudd’s android women from the original Star Trek when faced with illogical data.  Okay, that’s a lot of “if”s.  Miami, FSU and BYU all have to win next week, and then Oklahoma has to beat Miami.  However, that is just the type of scenario that proponents of a playoff should hope to see at the end of the season. Having situations like last year’s Oklahoma, Texas, Texas Tech tie-breaker on a national level would certainly fuel the playoff fires, and if we’re really lucky, a few of the more confused voters may actually shut down in the process.

Good and Bad Voters of "Week 3" (posted 9/19/09)

Once again Cleveland's Plain Dealer writer, Doug Lesmerises has both the most "Good" and "Bad" votes.  Unfortunately the Bad significantly outweighed the Good this week and left him the fan's Bad Voter of the Week.  Again, you can read the reasoning behind Lesmerises polarizing ballots HERE.

With 12 extreme votes there are plenty of fan bases potentially casting their votes for Lesmerises.  In fact, there are seven teams he ranked highest to only five he ranked lowest, but it seems the five lowest teams had the bigger say in the matter (Florida, Texas, Oklahoma, Ohio State and Mississippi.)  Lesmerises barely beat out Omaha World-Herald's Rich Kaipust, who had 296 net Bad votes (likely for ranking BYU lowest).

PEOPLE'S PICK:  Good Voter of "Week 3":

PEOPLE'S PICK: Bad Voter of "Week 3":

Meanwhile that left Chris Fowler as the Good Voter of the Week with a mere 42 Good votes.  Which goes to prove two things:  1)  Chris Fowler has at least 42 friends, family or members in his fan club. 2) People care a lot more about bad voters than good voters.

Pollspeak's Report On "Week 3" Polls (posted 9/14/09)

Also read this on SI.COM

This week Florida has two fewer first place AP votes than in the preseason but gained three in the Coaches’ poll.  Florida is playing great and has done exactly what is expected.  I understand why they could lose a couple votes in the AP…not for playing badly, but just because other teams have won tougher games at this point in the season.  However, I’m not sure why they gained more votes in the Coaches’ poll (and without ballots it’s hard to guess).  One vote likely came from whoever voted Oklahoma No. 1 in the preseason.  The other two must have been swayed by Florida’s gutsy wins over Charleston Southern and Troy.

It’s really too soon to put much faith in computer rankings, but for what it’s worth, three of the four BCS computers that currently release rankings have USC ranked higher than Florida  and two of them have the Trojans ranked No. 1.  Both human polls kept the Men of Troy at No. 3 this week.  I was only mildly surprised that they didn’t move up to number No. 2 after a road win at then No. 7/8 Ohio State.

In happier news for the Big 10, Michigan cracks the AP Top 25 for the first time since the final poll of 2007.  The Wolverines are also on the cusp of the Coaches’ top 25, and with another victory, they should jump into that poll as well.  Welcome back to the party, Wolverines; try to stay longer than Notre Dame and FSU could manage.

Looking at the AP Poll, which is the only one that releases all of its ballots, at least until SI.com can force the Coaches’ to release them, we see that Doug Lesmerises is once again the most extreme voter, and that trend will likely continue as long as he uses his “crazy” method of giving wins more weight than a team’s reputation.   Not only does he have BYU over Florida like last week…but now he ranks Houston over the Gators as well.

John Wilner of the San Jose Mercury News is probably the next-closest voter in terms of ideology.   He ranks three of the same teams over Florida (Alabama, BYU and USC) with only Houston missing.

This isn’t the only school of thought, however.  Here are the three people still voting Oklahoma over BYU.  The Cougars are undefeated and just beat the Sooners last week, but you wouldn’t know it by looking at Rich Kaipust of the Omaha World-Herald's ballot.  He ranks them furthest apart with Oklahoma No. 8 and BYU No. 15.

Likewise, there are now six people voting Georgia over Oklahoma State.  This is a little more understandable since the Cowboys just lost to lowly, undefeated Houston.  However, Georgia and Oklahoma State now have the same record (1-1) and the Cowboys just beat the Bulldogs 24-10 the previous week.  One of the few AP voter guidelines is “Pay attention to head-to-head results.”  I know it doesn’t say “slavishly follow head-to-head results,” but when two teams have the same record and just played each other last week, you’d think the choice is clear.  It was clear for a majority of the voters, but certainly not for John Hunt of the Oregonian, who ranked them furthest apart -- Georgia No. 14 and Oklahoma State No. 24.

Finally there are 25 (out of 60) AP Voters who still rank Oklahoma State over Houston.   That’s nearly half, including five people who ranked Oklahoma State No. 14 or better but left Houston unranked.   The most drastic was Teddy Feinberg who ranked Oklahoma State No. 12.  If you’re a fan of Oklahoma State or Georgia, you should hope that Houston stays ranked.  Otherwise, there is a very good case that none of those teams should be ranked right now.

These voters may be right by the season’s end, but the season is still young.  There is a reason that voters get to turn in a new ballot each week.  They should vote based on what they see today instead of focusing on being right in the end.  Fans in the future might hail them as a modern-day Nostradamus, but today they will angrily assume voters either:  A) Have some bias or agenda to push, B) Didn’t watch the games or C) Forgot or made a mistake.  Plus Nostradamus died of gout and edema.  So I think the right choice is clear.

Good and Bad Voters of "Week 2" (posted 9/13/09)

As we mentioned below in "The Ballad of Doug Lesmerises" the People's Picks of "Week 2" didn't receive the most Good or Bad votes.  Lesmerises received both, which means he didn't get the most net votes to qualify for either category. 

PEOPLE'S PICK:  Good Voter of "Week 2":

PEOPLE'S PICK: Bad Voter of "Week 2":

Instead the choices were Feinberg, who could have upset any number of fans with his five extreme picks.  However, his votes most likely came from Oklahoma State fans unhappy with his ranking the Cowboys lowest (No. 12) or the typical anti-Notre Dame contingent for ranking the Fighting Irish highest (No. 6).

Brett McMurphy was most likely picked by Nebraska fans for choosing the Huskers highest (No. 13) and for having an otherwise clean ballot.

However, if you want to read about the voter who received the most votes in both categories, keep reading...

The Ballad of Doug Lesmerises (posted 9/10/09)

Also read this on SI.COM

We’ve been getting some feedback about Pollstalker’s most extreme voter this week:  Doug Lesmerises.  He has, by far, the most polarizing ballot we’ve ever seen, getting 361 “Good” votes and 432 “Bad” votes as of this writing.  When voting closes, he will likely have the most votes in both categories.

He is undoubtedly the most “extreme voter” with 16 extreme votes and 5 near-extremes.   That actually makes him our most extreme voter…ever.  So we wanted to take this opportunity to give him an honorable mention for this accomplishment since he likely won’t finish as either Good Voter or Bad Voter of the Week.  (Since we use NET Good votes and Bad votes.)

We also wanted to take this opportunity to reiterate a point we’ve made several times in the past.  “Extreme” does not equal “Bad”.  They aren't the same thing.  Extreme votes are just a tool (one tool of several) for identifying voters who are biased or not paying attention.  Extreme votes can also be a sign of somebody who has put a lot of thought into their votes, but who also has different information or perspective.  That is definitely the case with Lesmerises.

You can read Lesmerises’ perspective in his own words HERE.  However, to paraphrase, he is trying to adhere to the AP’s primary guideline:  “Base your vote on performance, not reputation or preseason speculation.”  So he didn’t even look at his preseason ballot and ranked the teams based mainly on how they performed in week 1.   So the teams with the most impressive wins (Alabama, BYU and Oklahoma State) get his top three spots, which definitely puts him in the minority.

But should it?  This is exactly what the AP asks from its voters, and Lesmerises’ article proves he put a lot of thought into his choices.  This was not a case of throwing darts or done to spite the BCS as some fans have suggested. 

At the end of his explanation, he makes it clear that his ballot next week might look completely different, which is again an AP guideline:  “Don’t hesitate to make significant changes in your ballot from week to week.”  So we have high hopes for his ‘week 3’ ballot as well.

Doug Lesmerises may not be a folk hero, but we feel he still deserves some recognition for his ability to look at college football teams objectively and report the facts as he sees them.  We’re not saying his ballot is perfect, or that you can’t argue his choices individually.  Just don’t look at all of the red and yellow in his ballot and automatically think he is a bad voter.  Instead do some digging.  For example, look for voters who ranked Oklahoma over BYU after the Cougars defeated the Sooners on a neutral field.  (This is another tool for spotting “Bad” voters.)  This week Pollspeak will sing the praises of Doug Lesmerises as a voting hero for trying to do the right thing and seeing it through to a level we haven’t witnessed before.

Where Did The 2009 Preseason Articles Go?  (posted 9/14/09)

Pollspeak was once again prolific in the 2009 preseason.  As always you can use the "Week" menu at the top of the page and choose " '2009 >>> Preseason" to see everything we published.  However, here are some direct links to the preseason articles:

• Big East: Out of the Polls (posted 9/3/09)
• Leading Good and Bad Voters (posted 8/31/09)
• Ballot Chat With Adam Van Brimmer (posted 8/27/09)
• SI.com To Force Coaches To Make Ballots Public (posted 8/25/08)
• Inside the 2009 Preseason AP Poll  (posted 8/24/09)
• "Week 1" Preseason AP Poll Released  (posted 8/22/09)
• Sagarin and Billingsley Preseason Ratings Released  (posted 8/20/09)
• Inside the 2009 Preseason Coaches' Poll  (posted 8/9/09)
• Preseason Poll Retrospective: Taylor Zarzour (posted 8/5/09)
• AP and Coaches' Preseason Poll Release Dates Announced  (posted 8/4/09)

 A SAMPLING OF 2008 STORIES:

(Find more under the "Week" menu)

Pollspeak's Blog on SI.com  (posted 12/8/08)

Did the BCS do its job?  Are the computers being allowed to do theirs?  Or are they being treated like mere tools made to serve human needs like some kind of...robot?  Read all about it in this week's blog on SI.com.

Coaches' Poll Ballots Released  (posted 12/8/08)

The USA Today Coaches' Poll has made its ballots public for the first and only time during the 2008 season.  You may now use Pollstalker to analyze them.  Use the USA Today-Coaches' Poll '08 Report (found in the "Poll" drop down on the left side menu), or CLICK HERE. 

Harris Interactive Ballots Released  (posted 12/8/08)

The Harris Interactive College Football Poll has made its ballots public for the first and only time during the 2008 season.  You may now use Pollstalker to analyze them.  Use the Harris Interactive Poll '08 Report (found in the "Poll" drop down on the left side menu), or CLICK HERE.  There are only 113 voters, as Don Criqui did not turn in a ballot.

Look for the Coaches' Poll ballots in Pollstalker once they are released late on Monday. 

Bad Voter of Week 13: NOBODY  (posted 11/19/08)

The editorial staff of Pollspeak has made a big decision -- we will no longer be naming Bad and Good Voters of the Week.  The goal of Pollspeak is to elucidate and educate not humiliate or alienate.  Problems in the polls can be pointed out and discussed without Pollspeak trying to pick one bad or good voter (for the week or the year).  According to feedback we've received, Pollspeak is read and appreciated by many voters and people who run the polls.  That is one of our main goals.  Our hope is to become even more of a resource for voters and pollsters in the future. 

We have plans for new tools in the future.  Tools that can help voters make more informed ranking decisions.

We will still allow fans to vote on who they think are bad and good voters, and now the voting will stay open all week.  We hope our readers will take their opinions to our FORUMS, and go into detail about their choices.  We'll also continue to write our weekly blogs and will still point out examples of inconsistent or biased voting, but any voters named will be used as examples of a general issue and are not meant to be called out as the problem themselves.

With tools like POLLSTALKER, we provide fans, voters and pollsters with all the information they need to determine who they think is doing a  bad or good job voting. There really is less need for Pollspeak to "officially award" people.  Of course, we will still be covering any poll-related event that is newsworthy.  Pollspeak isn't going away, we're just evolving.

How To Save The BCS (posted 10/30/08)

Learn about four flaws in the current system that must be corrected if the BCS is to survive.  Pollspeak's most intriguing special feature yet includes never before released information about how the BCS works.  Click the link above to read it or check out the new "Features" menu at the top of every page in the Football section.

Where Did The 2008 Preseason Articles Go?  (posted 9/10/08)

Pollspeak was fairly prolific in the 2008 preseason.  As always you can use the "Week" menu at the top of the page and choose " '2008 >>> Preseason" to see everything we published.  However, here are some direct links to the preseason articles:

• Non-BCS Teams Suffer From Preseason Bias (posted 8/30/08)
• Special(ly Long) Report:  Ranking The Polls (posted 8/28/08)
• First Harris Interactive Poll - Sept. 28th  (posted 8/26/08)
• AP Poll:  Does It Need More Voters?  (posted 8/24/08)
• Big 10 Has The Edge In Coaches' Poll (posted 8/22/08)
• Interview with Taylor Zarzour (posted 8/19/08)
• Pre-Season AP Poll Released (posted 8/16/08)
• AP Poll News (posted 8/7/08)
• Pre-Season Coaches' Poll Released (posted 8/1/08)